If the Scottsdale, Arizona auctions are the bellwether for 2024’s collector car market, then it’s safe to expect cooler conditions this year. As consultants that focus on German and European classics, our attention was on a few dozen cars out of the thousands that crossed the block in Arizona. However, we’re seeing definite trends across the 4 auctions and 4 marques we tracked.

Last week’s post highlighted the interesting number of duplicate cars heading to auction, but we monitored over 40 vehicles, ranging from concours blue chip cars to more attainable classics. 

No-sales were common at this year’s Arizona auctions. 30% of the cars we were tracking at RM Sotheby’s event couldn’t manage to meet their reserves. In the Bonhams tent, 4 of the 5 vehicles on our list found new homes, with one significant car driven off to the private sale corral after a reserve-not-met result.

Porsche sales overall were not disappointing, but results signal a retreat to pre-pandemic levels for anything but the most desirable collector cars in the best condition. For example, a very nice 1961 Porsche 356B Roadster at Bonhams hammered sold below estimate for $148,000, or $165,760 after buyer’s premium. In 2023 this would’ve been a bargain, but all the money in 2019.

Across the board it would appear that buyers are being more cautious with their dollars and sellers aren’t setting their expectations to match. For example, a 1958 Porsche 356 Speedster at Worldwide Auctioneers with a non-matching 912 engine, some bodywork flaws, replica Rudge wheels and a disc brake upgrade was unsold at $250,000. Its 55-year ownership history was impressive but its condition was somewhere between “Good” and “Fair”. In our opinion it should have gone home with the high bidder. Not every Speedster is a $500,000 car.

Two of the three Mercedes Gullwings in Scottsdale failed to meet their reserves. The 1955 300SL Gullwing at Bonhams and the 1956 300SL Gullwing at RM Sotheby’s were both shuffled to their respective “Buy Now” corrals. In contrast, Barrett-Jackson’s pristine, freshly restored 1956 Mercedes 300SL set a new record for non-alloy bodied Gullwings at an impressive $3.1 million.

If you looked solely at the Scottsdale auctions this year, it would seem the bottom has fallen out of the market for 23-window VW Samba Microbuses. These have been high 5 and 6-figure cars since well before the pandemic. The Sealing Wax Red 1958 Microbus at Worldwide Auctioneers was a no-sale at $80,000. In our opinion, the owner was right to hold on to that one. In an absolutely tragic result for the seller of the 1960 23-window Samba that went on the block at no reserve, a high bid of only $40,000 took that home. We are sure tears were shed over that result.

It’s not all doom and gloom, however. Great cars can still bring great money. One of our favorites from Scottsdale, a 1972 911T in beautiful Gulf Blue paint and in #2 Excellent condition, sold for $128,000 at RM Sotheby’s. That’s $20,000 over market value, even when subtracting the buyer’s premium. 

With its desirable Sport Seats beautifully upholstered in houndstooth “Pepita” fabric, lovely paintwork in a sought-after color and professional photographic presentation this 911T clearly stole the hearts of at least 2 bidders.

In a terrific result in the youngtimer category, the 1984 Audi Sport Quattro we highlighted last week sold for an incredible $665,000. That’s $200,000 more than the last time it sold at RM Sotheby’s in 2015. These cars have hovered in the $400,000 range for a decade, so it’s great to see these composite-body and rally-bred beasts starting to be appreciated for the icons they are.

If there is a lesson to be learned from Scottsdale, perhaps it’s that predictions of a cooling market have been confirmed. It’s certainly looking like the pandemic-driven run-up of values was not sustainable and we’re in the midst of a correction.

When the market is red hot, people will buy almost anything to avoid being left out. But in a challenging market, third party appraisal and selling assistance will give you a better chance of a successful, happy, and timely result for all parties involved.

Wolf and Mare provides car finding, appraisal and listing services for sellers and buyers of collector European cars. If you’re interested in acquiring a special vehicle, give us a call or drop a line!