Monterey is coming. In a little under 2 weeks, we’ll welcome the second biggest automotive spectacle in the United States after Amelia Island in Florida. Everyone is looking to Monterey Car Week, as always, for the state of the collector car market heading into the end of 2024. Fortunately, I’m not sure we need to wait for Monterey to know where we’re headed. For today’s Market Monday, I’ll be sharing my RM Sotheby’s Tegernsee Sale recap, so let’s see what we can learn.

By the time the auction got rolling, there were a total of 29 automobile lots crossing the block at Gut Kaltenbrunn in Tegernsee, Germany. There was one prominent lot withdrawn, which we will get to a little bit later.

Of the 29 lots, 18 were sold when the hammer fell with one car, a Bugatti Veyron Grand Sport, selling from the no-sale corral for an undisclosed sum. The vast majority of the cars sold barely managed to squeak above their low estimates.

In fact, when you remove buyer’s premium from the equation, only 2 cars were bid to a dollar amount above the pre-auction low estimate. This is very interesting, as either 16 sellers decided to take their reserves off and just cut their losses, or reserves were set below the published estimates. This could very well have been a tactic from the auction house to spur more bidding by upping expectations, but bidders didn’t seem to be fooled.

Why do I say only 16 sellers? That’s because 2 of the 18 cars sold during the auction were run with no reserve. The sellers of those cars were probably disappointed, but at least they weren’t despondent. Both sold for just over or under the low estimate before buyer’s premium.

Please excuse the crudeness of this chart, but the graphic below gives you an indication of sales values (horizontal lines) versus the house estimates (vertical lines). No-sales are omitted.

In my preview of the Tegernsee Sale, I eschewed the Ferraris and Porsches and chose 4 cars that I found more interesting than the standard fare. How did my picks do? Well, two of them were the only cars to sell for more than their high estimates.

What I said: “The last coupe sold at auction was a very pretty but somewhat oddly proportioned car presented by Bonhams at its Paris sale in 2023. It hammered for €2,185,000, making this estimate perhaps a bit on the low side to inspire bidding.”

I’m scratching my head at this result to be honest. This lovely little streamlined coupe sold for $1,045,000 against an estimate of $1.5-1.7M. How it sold for half a million dollars under the low estimate is a mystery to me, but at least it has a new home and hopefully it’s a happy one.

What I said: “The last time a convertible 503 sold at auction was at Amelia Island in 2022, where a less sexy red over black, but equally nice car hammered for $340,500. This is probably a nice investment at the auction house’s guide of €300-400K.”

Someone agreed with me, as this lovely convertible sold for $458,005 including buyer’s premium, which is over the high estimate. Minus the premium it was still smack in the middle of the house estimated range. Nice buy, whoever you are.

What I said: “As you’d be acquiring the exclusive number plate of 1/100, I feel this lot could really stir up some bidding. A winning bid that exceeds the estimate of €700-900K is entirely possible, in my opinion. I will be watching the live stream of this one for certain!”

I hate to say I told you so, but the first HWA “190E reimagined” build slot sold for a staggering $1,424,300. It’ll be so much fun to see reviews and tests of this car when it’s released.

What I said: “At one time, a dealer was asking $1.8 MILLION for one of these G-wagens, which seems a bit insane. They are now trading hands in the neighborhood of the estimated €650-700K. This is the type of lot I’d expect to see on SBX Cars, not RM Sotheby’s, but as this car fits into a potential future collectible market, its sale is worthy of attention.”

This wild G-wagen sold for $727,099 after buyer’s premium, or in the middle of the estimate after fees. Not sure this was the ideal market for this car, but at least it sold.

One of the most highlighted and newsworthy lots at the Tegernsee Sale was a 1955 Porsche 550 Spyder. Supposedly bearing chassis number 038 and built by Wendler in 1955, the car was said to have its numbers-matching 4-cam engine and gearbox.

As I hinted in my Tegernsee preview, this car was a little weird. At some point the car was completely rebodied by Wendler, who made some very unusual choices during their restoration, such as using pop rivets as fasteners. Additionally, the car was painted silver instead of its original color of white with burgundy spears on the flanks.

The interior color was also switched from beige to black, losing the original barber pole-grained seat upholstery in the process. The car is beautiful, but it’s a non-runner with a questionable restoration in the past. As a result, I felt it wouldn’t do anywhere near the usual bid for a 550 Spyder.

We never got to find out, as the car was withdrawn prior to the auction! Not a peep was heard from the auction house as to why. In fact, in a really unusual move the car has been completely scrubbed from their catalog. Fortunately, photos and descriptions can still be found online.

Hopefully we’ll one day learn why we didn’t get to see this old girl on the block in Germany.

While Tegernsee didn’t have the best sell-through, it was a small auction relative to Monterey where RM alone will have 206 lots on offer. Now, it could be that I’m a bit jaded, but I have a bit of nervousness over the amount of metal that needs to move through the major auction houses in Monterey. The market is in decline and I expect it to continue to slide into the Fall at least.

My instincts tell me only the most motivated buyers are bidding, with sensible collectors keeping their paddles holstered until after November. If Tegernsee is any indication, I think we may see a lot of reserves set below the low estimate to boost sell-through. In my opinion, a bidder should consider those house estimates to be optimistic. Next week, we’ll finally muster up the energy to cover the Monterey auctions.

Wolf and Mare provides car finding, appraisals, and auction services for buyers and sellers of collector European cars. If you’re interested in acquiring an overseas car, give us a call or drop a line!